By the People


By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN: And so it came to pass that on Nov. 4, 2008, shortly after 11 p.m. Eastern time, the American Civil War ended, as a black man Barack Hussein Obama won enough electoral votes to become president of the United States. A civil war that, in many ways, began at Bull Run, Virginia, on July 21, 1861, ended 147 years later via a ballot box in the very same state. For nothing more symbolically illustrated the final chapter of Americas Civil War than the fact that the Commonwealth of Virginia the state that once exalted slavery and whose secession from the Union in 1861 gave the Confederacy both strategic weight and its commanding general voted Democratic, thus assuring that Barack Obama would become the 44th president of the United States. This moment was necessary, for despite a century of civil rights legislation, judicial interventions and social activism despite Brown v. Board of Education, Martin Luther Kings I-have-a-dream crusade and the 1964 Civil Rights Act the Civil War could never truly be said to have ended until Americas white majority actually elected an African-American as president. That is what happened Tuesday night and that is why we awake this morning to a different country. The struggle for equal rights is far from over, but we start afresh now from a whole new baseline. Let every child and every citizen and every new immigrant know that from this day forward everything really is possible in America.

 

And if you want to understand clearly what is happening with our environment, read Friedman’s new book, “Hot, Flat, and Crowded.” He spoke at Caltech last week and brilliantly sums up the crisis we’re facing.

Whose Face will be First?

 

N E W S  R E L E A S E

 

For Immediate Release

October 29, 2008

 

 

Caltech-Led Researchers Find Negative Cues from Appearance Alone Matter for Real Elections

 

 

PASADENA, Calif.– Brain-imaging studies reveal that voting decisions

are more associated with the brain’s response to negative aspects of

a politician’s appearance than to positive ones, says a team of

researchers from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech),

Scripps College, Princeton University, and the University of Iowa.

This appears to be particularly true when voters have little or no

information about a politician aside from their physical appearance.

 

The research was published online in the journal Social Cognitive and

Affective Neuroscience (http://scan.oxfordjournals.org) on October 28.

 

Deciding whom to trust, whom to fear, and indeed for whom to vote in

an election depends, in part, on quick, implicit judgments about

people’s faces. Although this general finding has been scientifically

documented, the detailed mechanisms have remained obscure. To probe

how a politician’s appearance might influence voting decisions,

Michael Spezio, an assistant professor of psychology at Scripps

College and visiting associate at Caltech, and Antonio Rangel, an

associate professor of economics at Caltech, examined brain

activation in subjects looking at the faces of real politicians.

 

Using a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scanner at the

Caltech Brain Imaging Center, the researchers obtained

high-resolution images of brain activation as volunteers made

decisions about politicians based solely on their pictures.

 

The researchers conducted two independent studies using different

groups of volunteers viewing the images of different politicians.

Volunteers were shown pairs of photos, each with a politician coupled

with their opponent in a real election in 2002, 2004, or 2006.

Importantly, none of the study subjects were familiar with the

politicians whose images they viewed.

 

In some experiments, the volunteers had to make character-trait

judgments about the politicians–for example, which of the two

politicians in the pair looked more competent to hold congressional

office, or which looked more likely to physically threaten the

volunteer. In other experiments, volunteers were asked to cast their

vote for one politician in the pair; once again, their decisions were

based only on the politicians’ appearances.

 

The results correlated with actual election outcomes. For example,

politicians who were thought to look the most physically threatening

in the experiment were more likely to have actually lost their

elections in real life. The correlation held true even when

volunteers saw the politicians’ pictures for less than one tenth of a

second.

 

Importantly, the pictures of politicians who lost elections, both in

the lab and in the real world, were associated with greater

activation in key brain areas known to be important for processing

emotion. This was true when volunteers simply voted and also when

they closely examined the politicians’ pictures for character traits.

The studies suggest that negative evaluations based only on a

politician’s appearance have some effect on real election

outcomes–and, specifically, may influence which candidate will lose

an election. This influence appears to be more uniform  than the

influence exerted by positive evaluations based on appearance.

 

This finding fits with prior studies in cognitive neuroscience as

well as in political theory.

 

“The results from our two studies suggest that intangibles like a

candidate’s appearance may work preferentially, or more uniformly,

via negative motives, and by means of brain processing contributing

to such negative evaluations,” says Michael Spezio, the lead author

on the study.

 

“It’s important to note that the brain region most closely associated

with seeing pictures of election losers, known as the insula, is

known to be important in processing both negative and positive

emotional evaluations. Its increased activation in response to the

appearance of election losers is consistent with its association with

negative emotional evaluations in several domains, including the

sight of someone who looks disgusted or untrustworthy,” Spezio says.

 

“Candidates try to evoke emotional reactions when they campaign for

office, and this research gives us a new perspective on how much

emotions might matter, and how they might matter, in terms of how

voters view candidates,” says study coauthor R. Michael Alvarez, a

professor of political science at Caltech and codirector of the

Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project.

 

One surprise in the study is that negative evaluations, such as the

perception that a candidate is threatening, influence election loss

significantly more than positive evaluations like attractiveness

influence election success.

 

“While these findings are certainly very provocative, it is important

to note their limitations,” says study senior author Ralph Adolphs,

Bren Professor of Psychology and Neuroscience and professor of

biology at Caltech, and director of the Caltech Brain Imaging Center.

 

In particular, Adolphs says, the observed effects, while

statistically significant, were rather small. “There is no doubt that

many, many sources of information come into play when we make

important and complex decisions, such as will happen in the upcoming

elections. We are not claiming that how the candidates look is all

there is to the story of how voters make up their minds–or that this

is even the biggest part of the story. However, we do think it has

some effect–and, moreover, that this effect may be largest when

voters know little else about a candidate.”

 

Adds Spezio, “Given the size of the effects we see, we are likely

detecting the influence of voters who have little or no information

about a candidate’s views or life story, for example, or who choose

not to pay attention to that information. Our finding is consistent

with literature showing that humans prioritize negative information

about outgroups”–groups of individuals who are perceived to not

belong to one’s own group, as defined by characteristics such as

profession, age, gender, social community, and shared values, but to

an outside group. “A voter who knows nothing about a candidate will

likely put that candidate into a default outgroup position. From

there, negative attributions are expected to get the primary weight

in decisionmaking. And that is precisely what we see,” he says.

 

“Earlier behavioral studies showed that rapid, effortless inferences

from facial appearance predict the outcomes of political elections,”

says study coauthor Alex Todorov, an assistant professor of

psychology and public affairs at Princeton University. In 2005,

Todorov published the first study to show that voter decisions are

significantly associated with character-trait judgments that are

based entirely on the visual appearance of political candidates.

 

“However,” Todorov adds, “these studies did not show how these

inferential processes could play out at the level of individual

voters. Two types of evidence will be critical to delineate the

causal effects of appearance on electoral success: work by political

scientists studying real voting decisions and work by cognitive

neuroscientists studying the proximal mechanisms of the effects of

inferences on decisions. The fMRI studies are an important step in

the latter direction.”

 

The coauthors of the study, titled, “A neural basis for the effect of

candidate appearance on election outcomes,” are John O’Doherty,

associate professor of psychology at Caltech, Kyle Mattes of the

University of Iowa, and Hackjin Kim of Korea University.

 

The work was supported by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, the

National Science Foundation, and the National Institutes of Health.

 

 

Ok, I’m posting this because I’ve been saying it the last week and I’m laying claim to it.

This is my shorthand for the McCain-Palin circus ticket.

This man really knows how to do it…

http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=184086&title=sarah-palin-gender-card

Just when I thought politics couldn’t get any worse (though we certainly now have some drama), McCain chooses Annie Get Your Gun for VP.  She’s like a throwback to the 1800s.  I know it doesn’t matter much here in Democratic California, but here’s a link to show your support of the Blue Team.

Click this link to get a free Obama/Biden sticker — even the shipping’s free.

http://pol.moveon.org/barackstickers/?id=-10412263-HYpSy7x&rc=ads.adwords.biden.txt15

Here’s the report from Tuesday’s Town Council Meeting.

http://www.pasadenastarnews.com/news/ci_9901451

From Carolyn Seitz and the Sheriff’s Office: “I just heard from Captain Blow that State Parole has begun relocating the 6 paroled child molesters from Risinghill Road.
They should all be relocated by March 3rd.”

Who says a community uprising doesn’t get action?

From Media Relations…

N E W S  R E L E A S E

For Immediate Release
January 10, 2008

Designing the 700 MHz Auction

Pasadena, Calif.–It’s been called beachfront property. Wireless companies are clamoring for pieces of it. The auction that will parcel it out will be the biggest of the next decade, with reserve prices set at $10 billion.

The property is in the sky, and it constitutes the most valuable communications spectrum that will hit the open market in the foreseeable future. It is the 700 megahertz (MHz) frequency, which until now has been the exclusive domain of broadcast television. On January 24, on the road toward ubiquitous digital television, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) will auction off licenses to use swaths of this spectrum.

Potential newbies to the wireless grid, like Google and Cox Cable, will bid alongside entrenched companies like Verizon and AT&T and start-ups like Frontline Wireless. They’ll all use a bidding system designed and built by California Institute of Technology economics professor Jacob Goeree and economics professor Charles Holt from the University of Virginia.  The system was tested and refined through a series of laboratory experiments in which more than 200 Caltech undergraduates participated over the course of two years.

Right now, a few companies dominate the U.S. wireless market. This auction is the last chance for new entrants to create a national footprint. The 700 MHz frequency is particularly appealing for wireless–the signal can penetrate walls, and each tower broadcasting in this range can cover at least four times as many square miles as conventional cell-phone towers. This means fewer towers, at less expense, to any potential bidder. To cell-phone users, it may also mean goodbye to the roaming signal.

When the FCC approached Goeree and Holt in 2004, it asked them to test auctioning software the FCC had already built. The two rebuilt a downsized version of that software and commissioned Caltech undergrads to test it. The students came into the computer lab on weekends, placing bids in simulated auctions for hours at a time.
They competed with each other so realistically that, says Goeree, their intelligent bidding mimicked professional auction behavior.
“They even found bugs in the software because they’re so smart,” he says.

All of the bidding for the 700 MHz spectrum will take place online.
This auction will run the same way that art or real estate auctions do–interested parties make their offers, and then compete in a bidding war until a winner is declared. But a communications-spectrum auction can quickly get complicated because of the volume of goods on the block and the number of parties with varying levels of interest.

To start, the FCC has divided the spectrum into several bands–A through E–that occupy different frequencies within the 700 MHz range, and divided each of these bands into several regions. Band A consists of 176 licenses for the frequencies between 698-704 and
728-734 MHz, for example, and band C, considered the most commercially attractive, has only twelve licenses and occupies the
746-757 and 776-787 MHz frequency ranges.

Each bidder could be interested in different bands and in different geographic regions; they don’t necessarily want nationwide coverage.
For example, Verizon may be particularly attracted to the C band, and they may only want it in Texas and New Mexico, where their coverage is spotty. T-Mobile may want to buy regions of the same band for coverage from North Dakota all the way south through Texas and east as far as Kansas. And Google, in a bid to establish a nationwide network, might want a package combining bands B and C through several regions to collectively cover the entire country.

The FCC wants all buyers to be able to compete equally and wants to make the most money in the process. But the program it had devised was too complex. “We tested the plane the FCC built and it didn’t fly that well,” says Goeree. The FCC’s program was inefficient–it allowed too many potential combinations of bandwidths and geographic regions. It didn’t maximize profits, or potential wins for the bidders. Most of all, it alienated bidders with its intricacies.
Goeree and Holt tested related auction designs but these didn’t fly well either and were still too complex. So they created a new method.

“We had a very simple idea for how to do it,” says Goeree. In December 2006 they called the FCC and presented their approach, called Hierarchical Package Bidding (HPB). It groups the available licenses for all bands into packages according to a hierarchy with a fixed number of levels or tiers. For band C, for example, there could be three levels that comprise different bundles of regions. At the bottom level, 12 individual licenses would correspond to 12 different regions–Region 1 is the Northeast, for example; Region 4 is the Mississippi Valley; Region 12 is the Gulf of Mexico. On level two, the 12 regions could merge into three packages made of four individual regions each. At the top, it would be winner take all, meaning that if the highest bid was at level one, that bidder would take home the national package consisting of all 12 licenses for band C.

The HPB method gives small players a prayer at winning in the high-stakes game. In a three-level system, participants can opt to bid on any of the three levels simultaneously, though as the bidding war progresses they may find themselves squeezed into a single level.
Although ultimately the FCC wants to turn the maximum profit, it also wants bidders who value a certain license or package the most to win it. Verizon, for example, can probably afford bidding for countrywide coverage, but they might not want it. They may just want one smaller license. Less wealthy bidders can also afford to compete at a local level, where individual licenses will be cheaper. Collectively, individually smaller bids at the local level could add up to more than what is bid at the nationwide level.

At the close of each bidding round, the software calculates the total money bid at each level. In a three-level system, say the bids at level three total $12 billion, at level two they total $11 billion, and the level one bid is $12.4 billion. The software would then advise bidders on their next move should they want to stay in the game. Each of the 12 bidders on level three would be alerted to increase their bid by about $34 million. The four bidders at level two would need to fork over more than $350 million each to stay in the game. Level one could sit tight, until the next round. There would be no need to calculate; the bidders would just make sure they could afford the suggested bid. “It solves the complexity for them,”
says Goeree. It also means that if each bidder at level two or three follows the advice in unison, they can all move on to the next round.
Of course, whoever can’t follow the suggestion will get shut out.

In an October 2007 public notice, the FCC declared, “The HPB auction format was chosen in part because it mitigates issues inherent in some other package bidding formats that give bidders interested in large packages an advantage over bidders interested in individual licenses.”

The FCC chose a two-level hierarchy for the upcoming auction. On level two, 12 individual licenses will be available. Level one is more complex and consists of three packages: a 50-state package will constitute eight of the 12 licenses, another two of the 12 licenses will be made of other U.S. Pacific territories, and an Atlantic package will combine the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Gulf of Mexico, and Puerto Rico for the final two licenses. Testing by Goeree and Holt showed that even a simple two-tiered format performed dramatically better than the FCC’s previous setup.

Goeree’s main concern about his hierarchical system was that making packages of licenses without information about bidder preferences would fail to meet bidder interests. The HPB offers prepackaged units, but companies might only be interested in an intermediate choice that matched their needs more closely. They might therefore refuse to bid on Goeree’s setup. “It turned out I was wrong. The HPB auction actually performed better,” Goeree says. He found that allowing his volunteer testers to build their own packages resulted in overlapping regions and too much extra complexity.

“In fact, we will use HPB in part because the mechanism for calculating [prices] is significantly simpler than other package bidding pricing mechanisms,” the FCC reported in October. “In addition, we find that . . . HPB procedures in general strike a careful balance between permitting bidders adequate bidding flexibility and discouraging insincere and anticompetitive bidding behavior.”

Given the stakes and the number of licenses, the auction will likely last for several weeks. There will be several bidding opportunities per day, but just like in art auctions, the bidding ends only when the money runs out.
###

Visit the Caltech Media Relations website at http://pr.caltech.edu/media.

Group planning Muir cleanup seeking help

By Robert S. Hong, Staff Writer

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After months of planning and discussion, community activists will collaborate with city and school officials next weekend and attack a blanket of litter that often veils the neighborhood around the campus.

To do this, members of the Altadena- Pasadena Block by Block Coalition are calling on the public to come help out at a cleanup day on Jan. 13.

The event will take place from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. on Lincoln Avenue in front of the campus.

“I look at this as a quasi `extreme makeover’ project,” said Dave Roberts, who spearheaded the effort along with the Altadena Seventh-day Adventist Church.

He hopes to garner support from neighbors in the community, students at Muir and residents from around the city to help make the school a prouder place.

“This school has a proud history, and we want to bring that back,” Roberts said.

Roberts met with city officials at the campus on Thursday afternoon under heavy rain clouds and discussed what was plausible for the event.

With city officials’ help, group members plan to dispose of trash and other debris that lines the Lincoln Avenue sidewalks from the freeway to Wyoming Street. They might also place mulch in the dirt beds of trees lining the walkways.

What will be done Jan. 13. is largely dependent on the number of people who show up, officials said.

City officials said they would


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have to control traffic in the area while the volunteers – many of whom will be youths – are working.They also discussed how much of Lincoln could feasibly be cleaned in four hours, noting that this could be an ongoing project with several phases.

“I don’t think it’s just a one-time shot,” said Pasadena city engineer Dan Rix.

Roberts agreed and hoped that the effort would have a visible, lasting impact on the neighborhood.

Altadena Town Councilman Bobby Thompson is also getting involved with the project, since his district is just up the street from the school.

“It’s like a gateway to Altadena from the freeway,” he said of Lincoln Avenue. “Hopefully as people leave the freeway they can see a progression of cleanliness.”

For information on volunteering, call (626) 794-3953 or show up at the event.

Deb’s Photos in Off the Clock Art Show

Here is a pic of my pix in the Caltech art show!

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